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2018年(nian)9月，中(zhong)色(se)鉛(qian)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)月度(du)景(jing)氣指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)為(wei)39.6，較上月上升0.5個(ge)點(dian)；先行(xing)合(he)成(cheng)指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)為(wei)65.3，較上月上升1.6個(ge)點(dian)；一致合(he)成(cheng)指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)為(wei)69.0，較上月上升1.3個(ge)點(dian)（近13個(ge)月鉛(qian)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)月度(du)景(jing)氣指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)如表1所示）。中(zhong)色(se)鉛(qian)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)月度(du)景(jing)氣指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)監測結果顯示，鉛(qian)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)景(jing)氣指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)持(chi)續位于“正常”區間運(yun)行(xing)。

表1  2017年9月(yue)至2018年9月(yue)中色鉛鋅(xin)產業月(yue)度景氣指數

1、景氣指數位于“正常”區間并有所回升

中(zhong)色鉛鋅產(chan)業月度(du)景(jing)(jing)氣(qi)(qi)指(zhi)數顯示(shi)，2018年9月景(jing)(jing)氣(qi)(qi)指(zhi)數為39.6，較(jiao)上(shang)月上(shang)升0.5個(ge)點，目前(qian)景(jing)(jing)氣(qi)(qi)指(zhi)數持(chi)續位于“正常”區間運(yun)行。中(zhong)色鉛鋅產(chan)業月度(du)景(jing)(jing)氣(qi)(qi)指(zhi)數趨勢(shi)如圖1所(suo)示(shi)。

注：<過熱><偏熱><正常><偏冷><過冷>

圖1  中色鉛(qian)鋅產業景氣指數趨勢圖

從中色鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)業(ye)月(yue)度(du)(du)景(jing)氣信號(hao)燈可見(jian)（見(jian)圖2），2018年9月(yue)，在構(gou)成中色鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)業(ye)月(yue)度(du)(du)景(jing)氣指數的9個指標中:鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)價格指數、M2、鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)礦(kuang)進口量、固(gu)定資產(chan)投(tou)資、生產(chan)指數、主營業(ye)務收(shou)入、利潤總額(e)位(wei)(wei)于(yu)“正常”區(qu)間(jian)；鉛(qian)酸蓄電(dian)池、鍍鋅(xin)(xin)板位(wei)(wei)于(yu)“偏冷”區(qu)間(jian)。

注：<過熱><偏熱><正常><偏冷><過冷>

圖(tu)(tu)2  中色鉛鋅產業(ye)景氣信號(hao)燈圖(tu)(tu)

2、先行合成指有所回升

2018年9月(yue)，中色(se)鉛鋅產(chan)業先行合成指(zhi)數為(wei)65.3，較上月(yue)上升1.6個點（見(jian)圖3）。

在構成中(zhong)色(se)鉛鋅(xin)產業(ye)先行合(he)成指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)的6個(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)標中(zhong)4漲(zhang)2降(jiang)。其中(zhong)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)的4個(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)標中(zhong)，LME鉛鋅(xin)價格指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)1.0%、M2同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)8.6%、鉛鋅(xin)礦進口量指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)59.1%、固定資(zi)(zi)產投資(zi)(zi)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)16.5%。同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)的2個(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)標中(zhong)，鉛酸蓄電(dian)池（千伏安時(shi)）同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)21.8%、鍍(du)鋅(xin)板同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)11.5%。

圖(tu)3  中色鉛鋅(xin)產業合成指數曲線(xian)圖(tu)

3、產業運行特點

2018年前三季度，鉛鋅產業除冶煉環節生產經營壓(ya)力偏大外，整(zheng)體(ti)能夠保持(chi)平穩運行(xing)。產業運行(xing)狀況呈(cheng)現如下四方面特點：

一是(shi)環保(bao)壓力持續增大，企業(ye)(ye)環保(bao)成(cheng)本(ben)剛性(xing)上(shang)漲(zhang)。2018年藍天保(bao)衛(wei)戰重(zhong)點區域(yu)在原有(you)2+26城(cheng)市基(ji)礎上(shang)，新增汾(fen)渭(wei)平(ping)原11城(cheng)市。清廢行動2018，涉及長江經濟帶(dai)11省市。在環保(bao)標準、執(zhi)法力度不(bu)斷(duan)(duan)增強的大背景(jing)下(xia)，環保(bao)重(zhong)點省市不(bu)斷(duan)(duan)增多，涉及鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)能不(bu)斷(duan)(duan)擴大。從(cong)長江經濟帶(dai)內鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)能占比(bi)(bi)看(kan)(kan)，該流域(yu)涉及鉛(qian)冶煉(lian)產(chan)(chan)能占全國總產(chan)(chan)能比(bi)(bi)例60%，再生(sheng)鉛(qian)產(chan)(chan)能占比(bi)(bi)80%，鋅(xin)(xin)冶煉(lian)產(chan)(chan)能占比(bi)(bi)50%。大氣污(wu)染重(zhong)點區域(yu)內，河(he)南省為鉛(qian)冶煉(lian)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)大省，河(he)北省為鍍(du)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)大省。因(yin)而上(shang)述區域(yu)內鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)企業(ye)(ye)能否達標穩定運(yun)行，將直接影(ying)響(xiang)鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)平(ping)穩健康發展(zhan)。從(cong)環保(bao)政(zheng)策(ce)影(ying)響(xiang)上(shang)看(kan)(kan)，行業(ye)(ye)企業(ye)(ye)紛(fen)紛(fen)加大環保(bao)投資，加強環保(bao)設施建(jian)設，企業(ye)(ye)環保(bao)成(cheng)本(ben)剛性(xing)上(shang)漲(zhang)。

二是鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)建(jian)(jian)設(she)有(you)(you)所分化，鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)利(li)用率相(xiang)對(dui)(dui)較(jiao)高。鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)原(yuan)生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)冶(ye)(ye)煉(lian)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)利(li)用率普遍(bian)高于(yu)再(zai)生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)冶(ye)(ye)煉(lian)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。但受(shou)再(zai)生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)盈利(li)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力增強(qiang)及未來再(zai)生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)將不斷增大(da)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)，原(yuan)生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)冶(ye)(ye)煉(lian)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)紛紛擴(kuo)大(da)原(yuan)有(you)(you)再(zai)生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸蓄電池(chi)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)受(shou)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)者責任延伸(shen)制度影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)，紛紛通過(guo)(guo)并購(gou)再(zai)生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、新(xin)建(jian)(jian)再(zai)生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)的方(fang)(fang)式延伸(shen)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)布局(ju)，再(zai)生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)建(jian)(jian)設(she)投(tou)資偏(pian)熱(re)。從初步統計數(shu)據(ju)看(kan)，中(zhong)國年產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)廢舊(jiu)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸蓄電池(chi)500萬噸，現有(you)(you)廢舊(jiu)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸蓄電池(chi)拆解(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力700萬噸，未來仍(reng)有(you)(you)200-300萬噸產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)在建(jian)(jian)，再(zai)生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)面(mian)臨(lin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)過(guo)(guo)剩(sheng)風險。鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)建(jian)(jian)設(she)方(fang)(fang)面(mian)，再(zai)生(sheng)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)相(xiang)對(dui)(dui)較(jiao)低，原(yuan)生(sheng)鋅(xin)冶(ye)(ye)煉(lian)新(xin)增產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)以原(yuan)有(you)(you)冶(ye)(ye)煉(lian)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)擴(kuo)建(jian)(jian)及礦山配套冶(ye)(ye)煉(lian)項目(mu)為主(zhu)，總體新(xin)增產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)有(you)(you)限，實(shi)際(ji)投(tou)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)規模受(shou)環保(bao)政策影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)有(you)(you)待觀察(cha)。鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)利(li)用率位于(yu)合理區間。

三是精礦(kuang)(kuang)供應依然偏緊(jin)，冶(ye)(ye)煉(lian)經營(ying)壓(ya)力偏大(da)(da)。受(shou)(shou)環保行(xing)動導致不(bu)合(he)規(gui)小型礦(kuang)(kuang)山關停及新投產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)礦(kuang)(kuang)山產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能有(you)限影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)精礦(kuang)(kuang)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)。2018年(nian)8月，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)精礦(kuang)(kuang)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)10.0萬(wan)噸(dun)；1-8月份，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)累計鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)精礦(kuang)(kuang)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)79.1萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)9.6%；2018年(nian)8月，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)鋅(xin)(xin)精礦(kuang)(kuang)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)23.5萬(wan)噸(dun)；1-8月鋅(xin)(xin)精礦(kuang)(kuang)累計產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)178.0萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)8.1%，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)精礦(kuang)(kuang)供應依然偏緊(jin)。鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)金(jin)屬產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)方(fang)面，精鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)有(you)所(suo)增(zeng)長，其中(zhong)(zhong)再生(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長10.6%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)于(yu)原生(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長7.2個百分點，再生(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)對精鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長貢獻(xian)較大(da)(da)。精鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)方(fang)面，2018年(nian)8月，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)精鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)43.1萬(wan)噸(dun)；1-8月份精鋅(xin)(xin)累計產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)369.5萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)1.4%。精鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)除受(shou)(shou)鋅(xin)(xin)精礦(kuang)(kuang)供應緊(jin)張影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)外，也受(shou)(shou)到冶(ye)(ye)煉(lian)加工費位(wei)于(yu)歷史(shi)低(di)位(wei)，冶(ye)(ye)煉(lian)企業盈利能力下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)，企業生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)積極性不(bu)高(gao)(gao)(gao)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)。從產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業實現(xian)利潤數據上(shang)看，2018年(nian)1-8月中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)冶(ye)(ye)煉(lian)企業實現(xian)利潤16.6億(yi)元，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)62%。鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)采選實現(xian)利潤受(shou)(shou)價(jia)格仍位(wei)于(yu)相(xiang)對高(gao)(gao)(gao)位(wei)運(yun)行(xing)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)，實現(xian)利潤同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)仍有(you)增(zeng)長，但(dan)增(zeng)幅有(you)所(suo)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)。2018年(nian)1-8月實現(xian)利潤122.0億(yi)元，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長11.5%。價(jia)格方(fang)面，2018年(nian)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)金(jin)屬價(jia)格重心有(you)所(suo)下(xia)(xia)(xia)移，但(dan)仍位(wei)于(yu)相(xiang)對高(gao)(gao)(gao)位(wei)運(yun)行(xing)。9月鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)國(guo)內(nei)現(xian)貨均價(jia)18966元/噸(dun)，環比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)4.2%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)跌6.8%。滬鋅(xin)(xin)主力合(he)約月均價(jia)21090元/噸(dun)，環比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)0.4%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)15.8%。

四是(shi)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)消費(fei)(fei)整(zheng)(zheng)體(ti)動(dong)(dong)力不(bu)足(zu)。中(zhong)國(guo)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)消費(fei)(fei)受(shou)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸(suan)蓄電(dian)池產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)影響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)。2018年8月，中(zhong)國(guo)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸(suan)蓄電(dian)池產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)1330千(qian)伏安時；1-8月中(zhong)國(guo)累計鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸(suan)蓄電(dian)池產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)14630.8千(qian)伏安時，同(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)27.2%。鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)消費(fei)(fei)受(shou)鍍鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)發展影響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)，2018年鍍鋅(xin)(xin)板產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)受(shou)鋼鐵去產(chan)(chan)能行動(dong)(dong)影響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)，同(tong)比(bi)有所(suo)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)，2018年8月，中(zhong)國(guo)鍍鋅(xin)(xin)板產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)460萬(wan)噸；1-8月中(zhong)國(guo)鍍鋅(xin)(xin)板累計產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)3298.7萬(wan)噸，同(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)26.2%。終端消費(fei)(fei)領域，汽車、冰箱、洗衣機等產(chan)(chan)品產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)雖然同(tong)比(bi)仍(reng)有增(zeng)長，但(dan)增(zeng)速有所(suo)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)。鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)消費(fei)(fei)動(dong)(dong)力整(zheng)(zheng)體(ti)不(bu)足(zu)。

從2018年四季(ji)度(du)鉛鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業發展(zhan)趨勢(shi)上看，鉛鋅(xin)精礦(kuang)供應(ying)緊(jin)張局面難以發生根本性(xing)好轉，再生金屬(shu)產(chan)(chan)量依(yi)然能夠保持穩步增長(chang)，終(zhong)端消(xiao)費進入傳統消(xiao)費旺季(ji)或將(jiang)有所提振，因(yin)而初步預(yu)計(ji)未來鉛鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業景氣指數仍將(jiang)位(wei)于“正(zheng)常(chang)”區間運行。（馬駿(jun) 執筆）

附注：

1、鉛鋅產業景氣先行合成指數（簡稱：先行指數）用于判斷鉛鋅產業經濟運行的近期變化趨勢。該指數由以下6項指標構成：LME鉛鋅價格指數、M2、鉛酸蓄電池、鍍鋅板、鉛鋅礦進口量指數、固定資產投資指數。

2、鉛鋅產業一致合成指標（簡稱：一致指數）反映當前鉛鋅產業經濟的運行狀況。該指數由以下3項指標構成：生產指數、主營業務收入指數、利潤總額指數。

3、鉛鋅產業滯后合成指標（簡稱：滯后指數）與一致指數一起主要用來監測經濟變動的趨勢，起到事后驗證的作用。該指數由以下3項指標構成：流動資本余額、應收賬款總額、產成品余額。

4、綜合景氣指數反映當前鉛鋅產業發展景氣程度。景氣燈號圖把鉛鋅產業經濟運行狀態分為5個級別，“紅燈”表示經濟過熱，“黃燈”表示經濟偏熱，“綠燈”表示經濟運行正常，“淺藍燈”表示經濟偏冷，“藍燈”表示經濟過冷。對單項指標燈號賦予不同的權重，將其匯總而成的綜合景氣指數也同樣由5個燈區顯示。

綜合景氣指數由9項指標構成，即先行指數和一致指數的構成指標。

5、編制指數所用各項指標均經過季節調整，已剔除季節因素。

6、每月都將對以前的月度景氣指數進行修訂。當時間序列加入最新的一個月的數據后，以往月度景氣指數會或多或少地發生變化，這是模型自動修正的結果。

7、生產指數，包括國內生產鉛、鋅精礦金屬含量、精煉鉛、鋅產量。進口量指數，包括進口鉛、鋅精礦含鉛、鋅量、進口精煉鉛、鋅金屬量。

【責任編輯：李瑛】