發(fa)布時間(jian)：2016-04-21
隨著我國(guo)經濟社(she)會發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)逐漸步入(ru)(ru)新(xin)常(chang)態(tai)，電(dian)(dian)力(li)消(xiao)費(fei)增速相應呈現(xian)換擋態(tai)勢(shi)。2014年(nian)，我國(guo)全社(she)會用電(dian)(dian)量同比增長(chang)3.8%，為近年(nian)來(lai)新(xin)低。特別(bie)是(shi)由于(yu)當前經濟下(xia)行壓力(li)較大，一些(xie)業(ye)(ye)界人士(shi)對(dui)(dui)未(wei)(wei)來(lai)十年(nian)電(dian)(dian)力(li)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)前景心懷隱憂(you)，對(dui)(dui)電(dian)(dian)力(li)投資空(kong)間(jian)是(shi)否廣闊存有疑慮(lv)。我們(men)認為，對(dui)(dui)電(dian)(dian)力(li)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)空(kong)間(jian)和態(tai)勢(shi)的(de)判斷，必須歷(li)史(shi)地(di)、具體地(di)分析，既要(yao)縱觀世界主(zhu)要(yao)國(guo)家(jia)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)化過程(cheng)中電(dian)(dian)力(li)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)普遍(bian)規律，又要(yao)考慮(lv)我國(guo)全面建成小康社(she)會歷(li)史(shi)進程(cheng)的(de)現(xian)實需要(yao)。可(ke)以判斷，今后五年(nian)我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力(li)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)將(jiang)進入(ru)(ru)提質增效、科(ke)學發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)的(de)關鍵時期，未(wei)(wei)來(lai)的(de)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)動力(li)依然強勁，投資前景仍很(hen)廣闊。
一、“十三五”電力需求研判
黨的(de)十八大以來(lai)，習(xi)近(jin)平(ping)總(zong)書記提出了“四個全(quan)面”的(de)戰(zhan)略布(bu)局，將全(quan)面建成(cheng)小(xiao)康(kang)(kang)社(she)會(hui)定位為“實(shi)現(xian)中華民族偉大復興(xing)中國夢的(de)關鍵(jian)一(yi)步(bu)”。我國經(jing)(jing)濟總(zong)量已于(yu)“十一(yi)五(wu)”末(mo)超(chao)過日本，成(cheng)為僅(jin)次于(yu)美國的(de)世界第二大經(jing)(jing)濟體(ti)。近(jin)年來(lai)我國經(jing)(jing)濟在“新常態”下保持平(ping)穩(wen)運行，經(jing)(jing)濟結構調整出現(xian)積極變化(hua)，全(quan)面建成(cheng)小(xiao)康(kang)(kang)社(she)會(hui)的(de)物質(zhi)基礎得(de)到進一(yi)步(bu)夯實(shi)。未來(lai)電(dian)力、能(neng)源(yuan)工(gong)業要為全(quan)面建成(cheng)小(xiao)康(kang)(kang)社(she)會(hui)提供堅(jian)實(shi)保障(zhang)和充(chong)足(zu)動力。
按照2020年(nian)全面建成小康社會的要求，2020年(nian)我國國內(nei)(nei)生產(chan)總(zong)值要實現(xian)在2010年(nian)基(ji)礎上翻(fan)一番(fan)，達到(dao)13萬(wan)億美元（2010年(nian)價，下(xia)同），人均(jun)GDP要由(you)2014年(nian)的6400美元提高(gao)到(dao)10000美元左右，2014-2020年(nian)國內(nei)(nei)生產(chan)總(zong)值年(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)速將(jiang)保持在7%左右。根據國家城(cheng)鎮化發展規(gui)劃(hua)，我國常住人口城(cheng)鎮化率將(jiang)由(you)2014年(nian)的54.8%提高(gao)到(dao)2020年(nian)的60%左右，平均(jun)一年(nian)增(zeng)加約一個百(bai)分點(dian)(dian)。與此同時，產(chan)業(ye)結構調整將(jiang)繼續深化，據有(you)關機構預測，一、二、三次產(chan)業(ye)比重(zhong)將(jiang)由(you)2014年(nian)的9:43:48調整為2020年(nian)的8:39:53，其中二產(chan)業(ye)下(xia)降4個百(bai)分點(dian)(dian)，三產(chan)業(ye)上升5個百(bai)分點(dian)(dian)。
回顧世(shi)界主要發(fa)達(da)(da)國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)的(de)發(fa)展(zhan)歷程(cheng)，根據有關經濟、電力歷史(shi)數據資料(liao)分(fen)析，受不同的(de)工(gong)業化(hua)(hua)道路、城鎮化(hua)(hua)進程(cheng)、產(chan)業結構、發(fa)展(zhan)水(shui)平、用能習慣(guan)等因素影響，各(ge)個國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)電力增速有高低(di)、快慢的(de)差別(bie)。但總體(ti)來看(kan)，在與我國(guo)(guo)”十三五”期間相類似(si)的(de)發(fa)展(zhan)階段中，各(ge)國(guo)(guo)電力增速和電力彈(dan)性(xing)系(xi)數總體(ti)保(bao)持(chi)在較高的(de)水(shui)平上。美國(guo)(guo)、日本、韓(han)國(guo)(guo)是發(fa)達(da)(da)國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)中的(de)“老、中、青”典(dian)型，其發(fa)展(zhan)歷程(cheng)具有較強的(de)代(dai)表性(xing)。
從(cong)經濟(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)和(he)城鎮化(hua)(hua)(hua)水平(ping)的(de)(de)(de)視角來(lai)(lai)看：美(mei)國(guo)作(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)老(lao)牌(pai)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)家，經濟(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)相對(dui)超(chao)前(qian)于城鎮化(hua)(hua)(hua)（與我(wo)國(guo)相比較(jiao)而言(yan)，下同），美(mei)國(guo)1940年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)均(jun)GDP已經達(da)到10000美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，1940-1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)城鎮化(hua)(hua)(hua)率(lv)由56.5%提高至(zhi)(zhi)64%（相當于我(wo)國(guo)未來(lai)(lai)十年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)城鎮化(hua)(hua)(hua)進程(cheng)(cheng)），1930-1940年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)、1940-1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)用電(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分別為(wei)5.3%和(he)7.2%，電(dian)力(li)彈性系(xi)(xi)數(shu)分別為(wei)1.9、1.3。日(ri)本作(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)“二戰(zhan)”以后迅速(su)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)起來(lai)(lai)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)家，1955-1963年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)處于工業化(hua)(hua)(hua)中后期(qi)，經濟(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)水平(ping)（人(ren)均(jun)GDP）、城鎮化(hua)(hua)(hua)進程(cheng)(cheng)與我(wo)國(guo)未來(lai)(lai)十年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)相似(si)，人(ren)均(jun)GDP由6000美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)提高至(zhi)(zhi)10600美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，同時城鎮化(hua)(hua)(hua)率(lv)也由56%提高至(zhi)(zhi)66%，用電(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)高達(da)11.5%，電(dian)力(li)彈性系(xi)(xi)數(shu)為(wei)1.4。韓(han)國(guo)作(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)新興的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)家，城鎮化(hua)(hua)(hua)相對(dui)超(chao)前(qian)于經濟(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，1979-1985年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，韓(han)國(guo)城鎮化(hua)(hua)(hua)率(lv)由55%快速(su)提升(sheng)至(zhi)(zhi)65%，用電(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為(wei)8.8%，電(dian)力(li)彈性系(xi)(xi)數(shu)為(wei)1.4。1986-1993年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，人(ren)均(jun)GDP由6300美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)提高至(zhi)(zhi)10400美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，用電(dian)量年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為(wei)12.2%，電(dian)力(li)彈性系(xi)(xi)數(shu)為(wei)1.5。
從人均(jun)(jun)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)水平的(de)視角來看：2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)我國(guo)(guo)人均(jun)(jun)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量已(yi)突破4000千瓦時(shi)(shi)，相(xiang)當(dang)于1961年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)美國(guo)(guo)、1973年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)日本和1996年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)韓國(guo)(guo)。美國(guo)(guo)1961-1966年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)GDP年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)速(su)(su)為(wei)(wei)5.8%，用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)速(su)(su)約(yue)(yue)為(wei)(wei)7.5%，單(dan)位GDP電(dian)(dian)(dian)耗(hao)(hao)為(wei)(wei)0.23-0.25千瓦時(shi)(shi)/美元并(bing)保持(chi)微(wei)增(zeng)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力彈(dan)性系(xi)數(shu)(shu)為(wei)(wei)1.3。日本1973-1978年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)GDP年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)速(su)(su)為(wei)(wei)3.1%，用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)速(su)(su)約(yue)(yue)為(wei)(wei)3.6%，單(dan)位電(dian)(dian)(dian)耗(hao)(hao)為(wei)(wei)0.18-0.19千瓦時(shi)(shi)/美元并(bing)保持(chi)微(wei)增(zeng)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力彈(dan)性系(xi)數(shu)(shu)為(wei)(wei)1.2。韓國(guo)(guo)1996-2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)GDP年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)速(su)(su)為(wei)(wei)3.8%，用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)速(su)(su)約(yue)(yue)為(wei)(wei)8.9%，單(dan)位電(dian)(dian)(dian)耗(hao)(hao)逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)加，由0.33提高到0.43千瓦時(shi)(shi)/美元，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力彈(dan)性系(xi)數(shu)(shu)為(wei)(wei)2.3。
我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)是(shi)“后發(fa)(fa)”的(de)(de)(de)工業(ye)(ye)化國(guo)(guo)家，應(ying)(ying)在吸取(qu)他國(guo)(guo)經(jing)驗的(de)(de)(de)基礎上(shang)(shang)，立足(zu)國(guo)(guo)情做好(hao)謀劃、科學發(fa)(fa)展。當前我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)單位GDP電(dian)耗0.63千瓦時(shi)/美(mei)元，遠(yuan)高于發(fa)(fa)達國(guo)(guo)家，是(shi)美(mei)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)2.4倍、日本的(de)(de)(de)3.5倍、韓國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)1.4倍，具(ju)備較大的(de)(de)(de)下降(jiang)潛力。我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)政府已經(jing)提出(chu)了(le)“中國(guo)(guo)制造2025”、“互聯(lian)網+”等一(yi)系列戰略舉措支持經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)轉(zhuan)型升級，隨著產業(ye)(ye)結構(gou)調整(zheng)成效逐步顯現，單位電(dian)耗將(jiang)呈現下降(jiang)趨勢。但應(ying)(ying)該指出(chu)，作為一(yi)個(ge)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)展處于快速增(zeng)長(chang)期(qi)、發(fa)(fa)展不(bu)平(ping)衡的(de)(de)(de)大國(guo)(guo)，扭轉(zhuan)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)展慣性、推動經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)轉(zhuan)型升級需(xu)要(yao)時(shi)間和空間來循序、梯次(ci)推進，因而單位電(dian)耗下降(jiang)將(jiang)是(shi)一(yi)個(ge)漸(jian)進的(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程，不(bu)可能一(yi)蹴而就。“十三五(wu)”期(qi)間，要(yao)實現經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)平(ping)穩(wen)較快增(zeng)長(chang)，客(ke)觀上(shang)(shang)要(yao)求電(dian)力增(zeng)速不(bu)能換擋過(guo)猛、減速太快。
綜合測算表明，“十(shi)三(san)五(wu)”期(qi)間電(dian)(dian)(dian)力增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)將較“十(shi)五(wu)”、“十(shi)一五(wu)”期(qi)兩(liang)位數的增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長將有所下(xia)降(jiang)，由(you)(you)高速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長轉為(wei)中(zhong)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長，我(wo)(wo)們將以低于1的彈性(xing)系數、適中(zhong)的電(dian)(dian)(dian)力增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長速(su)度支撐我(wo)(wo)國經濟(ji)較快增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長。從目前至2020年(nian)，實現(xian)“全面建成小康(kang)社會(hui)”的目標，全社會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)年(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)5.5%-6.5%，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力彈性(xing)系數介于0.8-1區間內，2020年(nian)達(da)(da)到7.6-8萬億千瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)，人(ren)均用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)達(da)(da)到5500-5700千瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)，用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)結構中(zhong)二(er)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)由(you)(you)74%下(xia)降(jiang)至70%左右，三(san)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)和(he)居民生(sheng)(sheng)活用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)由(you)(you)24%提(ti)高至28%左右。2020年(nian)之后，我(wo)(wo)們將站在(zai)全面小康(kang)的新起點上(shang)向(xiang)實現(xian)“中(zhong)等發達(da)(da)”的長期(qi)目標穩(wen)步邁進。展望(wang)到2030年(nian)，我(wo)(wo)國全社會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)達(da)(da)到10-11萬億千瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)，人(ren)均用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)約為(wei)7000~8000千瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)，期(qi)間用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)進一步下(xia)降(jiang)，用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)結構中(zhong)二(er)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)繼(ji)續下(xia)降(jiang)，三(san)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)和(he)居民生(sheng)(sheng)活用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)繼(ji)續提(ti)升。
二、“十三五”電源發展前景
中(zhong)央(yang)財經領導(dao)小(xiao)組(zu)第六次會議的(de)(de)召(zhao)開，標(biao)志著(zhu)我國在全面建(jian)成小(xiao)康社會的(de)(de)征程(cheng)中(zhong)，進入到能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)生產和(he)消費(fei)革命的(de)(de)新階段。按照能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)革命的(de)(de)總體(ti)要求，要加(jia)快(kuai)電(dian)力結(jie)構優(you)化(hua)調(diao)整，實施非(fei)化(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發展(zhan)和(he)化(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)高效清潔(jie)利用并(bing)舉，形成水電(dian)、可再生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)、核電(dian)、煤(mei)電(dian)、氣電(dian)等各類電(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)協調(diao)發展(zhan)、多(duo)輪驅動(dong)的(de)(de)電(dian)力生產和(he)供應體(ti)系。既要注重整體(ti)的(de)(de)結(jie)構調(diao)整，又要充(chong)分挖(wa)掘每個品種的(de)(de)優(you)化(hua)潛力。
截(jie)至2014年底，我國發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機總容量達到13.6億(yi)千瓦，其中煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)、氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)等化石能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機占約(yue)2/3，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)、風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽(yang)能發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)等非(fei)化石能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機占約(yue)1/3。初(chu)步(bu)測算(suan)2020年我國發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機總需(xu)求約(yue)20億(yi)千瓦左(zuo)右，2015-2020年約(yue)需(xu)新增6.5億(yi)千瓦左(zuo)右。展望到2030年，電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)裝(zhuang)機總需(xu)求約(yue)28億(yi)千瓦左(zuo)右。未來電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展要綜合考(kao)慮(lv)開(kai)發(fa)(fa)潛(qian)力、開(kai)發(fa)(fa)成本、市(shi)場消納(na)、技(ji)術進步(bu)、環境社(she)會影響等因素。
從(cong)資源(yuan)稟賦和(he)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)潛(qian)力(li)來看，各類電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)都(dou)具有(you)較大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)空間，特別(bie)是非化石能(neng)源(yuan)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)潛(qian)力(li)相對較大(da)。煤炭資源(yuan)豐富(fu)(fu)，保有(you)儲量1.38萬億(yi)(yi)(yi)噸，按未來煤炭產量及(ji)可供用(yong)于發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)用(yong)煤量來估算，可支撐裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機15億(yi)(yi)(yi)千瓦以上(shang)。通過(guo)積極進口補充，遠景天然(ran)氣用(yong)于發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的資源(yuan)量可支撐氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機2億(yi)(yi)(yi)千瓦以上(shang)。水能(neng)、風能(neng)、太陽能(neng)資源(yuan)豐富(fu)(fu)，其中常規水電(dian)(dian)(dian)技術(shu)可開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)量約6.6億(yi)(yi)(yi)千瓦、待開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)程度達60%，據有(you)關機構測算風電(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽能(neng)理論可支撐裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機均(jun)可達到(dao)10億(yi)(yi)(yi)千瓦以上(shang)。通過(guo)國(guo)(guo)內開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)、海(hai)外開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)、國(guo)(guo)際貿易(yi)等多渠(qu)道并舉(ju)，未來核電(dian)(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)有(you)較為充足的資源(yuan)保障。
另一方(fang)面(mian)，隨(sui)(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)非化(hua)石能(neng)源的快速發(fa)(fa)展，“十(shi)三五”電(dian)(dian)(dian)源發(fa)(fa)展的清(qing)潔化(hua)、低(di)碳(tan)化(hua)水(shui)平(ping)將(jiang)明(ming)顯(xian)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)，但總體(ti)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)、整體(ti)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)水(shui)平(ping)將(jiang)呈(cheng)現(xian)上升(sheng)趨勢。隨(sui)(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)清(qing)潔高(gao)(gao)效煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)技術的推廣應用(yong)，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)造價(jia)(jia)將(jiang)保持穩(wen)中有(you)升(sheng)，考慮碳(tan)稅等外部成(cheng)本(ben)內部化(hua)后發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)將(jiang)有(you)所提(ti)高(gao)(gao)。氣(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)國產化(hua)有(you)利于工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)造價(jia)(jia)降(jiang)低(di)，但用(yong)氣(qi)價(jia)(jia)格上升(sheng)將(jiang)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)。后續(xu)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)大多遠離負荷(he)中心(xin)，要(yao)妥善處理好(hao)生(sheng)態保護(hu)、庫區(qu)移民、國際關系(xi)等問題，工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)造價(jia)(jia)、發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)、送出成(cheng)本(ben)將(jiang)顯(xian)著(zhu)(zhu)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)。隨(sui)(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)核電(dian)(dian)(dian)安全(quan)標準(zhun)的不斷提(ti)高(gao)(gao)，核電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)造價(jia)(jia)總體(ti)上保持上升(sheng)的趨勢。隨(sui)(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的規模化(hua)發(fa)(fa)展和裝備技術的成(cheng)熟(shu)，工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)造價(jia)(jia)將(jiang)會降(jiang)低(di)，但由于風電(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽(yang)能(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)具(ju)有(you)隨(sui)(sui)機性和波(bo)動(dong)性，需要(yao)通過加強系(xi)統調(diao)峰儲能(neng)能(neng)力建(jian)設、健全(quan)輔助服(fu)務市場機制等手(shou)段來促(cu)進系(xi)統安全(quan)、穩(wen)定、經濟(ji)運行。
按(an)(an)照“優先利用非化(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電、按(an)(an)需發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)化(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電”的總體原則(ze)，要積極發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)水(shui)電，安全(quan)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)核(he)電，大力發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電，優化(hua)(hua)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)氣電，清(qing)潔高(gao)效發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)煤(mei)電。初步(bu)測算(suan)，到(dao)(dao)2020年(nian)，非化(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)和(he)化(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機比(bi)約為4:6，非化(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機比(bi)重(zhong)較2014年(nian)提(ti)高(gao)約6個百分點。其中，水(shui)電（含抽水(shui)蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)）裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機達(da)到(dao)(dao)3.9億千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，新(xin)增9000萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)；核(he)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機達(da)到(dao)(dao)約5800萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)，新(xin)增約3800萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)；風電、太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機達(da)到(dao)(dao)3億千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，新(xin)增1.8億千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)；煤(mei)電、氣電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機達(da)到(dao)(dao)12.2億千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，新(xin)增3.3億千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)；其他發(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機約3000萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)。展(zhan)望到(dao)(dao)2030年(nian)，非化(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機比(bi)重(zhong)將進一步(bu)上升，非化(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)和(he)化(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機比(bi)約為4.5:5.5。
三、“十三五”電力格局展望
能(neng)(neng)源資(zi)源稟賦及區(qu)域經濟發展決定了我國的能(neng)(neng)源格(ge)局(ju)，電力(li)格(ge)局(ju)要服從(cong)于(yu)能(neng)(neng)源格(ge)局(ju)。總體來說，東(dong)北(bei)(bei)將基本保持(chi)自(zi)平衡，華(hua)北(bei)(bei)主送(song)華(hua)東(dong)，西北(bei)(bei)主送(song)華(hua)中，西藏主送(song)華(hua)中和南(nan)方。
從電(dian)(dian)(dian)源布局來(lai)看，受能(neng)源資源、環境保(bao)護、市場(chang)(chang)消納(na)等(deng)(deng)因素影響，“十三(san)(san)五(wu)”各類電(dian)(dian)(dian)源發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)應加強統籌(chou)、科(ke)學規(gui)劃(hua)，因時因地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)制宜，不(bu)能(neng)盲目(mu)擴(kuo)張，也(ye)不(bu)能(neng)因噎廢食。隨著水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)程(cheng)度(du)的(de)不(bu)斷(duan)提高(gao)，水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)的(de)“主(zhu)戰場(chang)(chang)”將進一步(bu)西(xi)移，“十三(san)(san)五(wu)”新(xin)增水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)將主(zhu)要集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)在金沙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)、雅礱江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)、大(da)渡(du)河、瀾(lan)滄江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)等(deng)(deng)流域，2020年(nian)西(xi)南(nan)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)基地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)規(gui)模將達到1.8億(yi)(yi)千瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)，約(yue)占當(dang)年(nian)全國水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機的(de)51%。核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)必須(xu)堅持采(cai)用國際最高(gao)安全標(biao)準，確保(bao)安全運行，“十三(san)(san)五(wu)”核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)主(zhu)要布局在山東(dong)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)蘇(su)、浙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)、遼寧、福建、廣(guang)東(dong)、廣(guang)西(xi)、海(hai)南(nan)等(deng)(deng)沿海(hai)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)，東(dong)部(bu)(bu)沿海(hai)核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)帶初步(bu)形成規(gui)模；遠期在充分論證的(de)基礎上努力實現核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)向(xiang)內(nei)陸地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)穩妥推(tui)進。可再生能(neng)源發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)要堅持開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)、輸送(song)、市場(chang)(chang)同步(bu)規(gui)劃(hua)，“十三(san)(san)五(wu)”將由集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)為(wei)主(zhu)向(xiang)集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、分散開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)并(bing)舉轉變，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)主(zhu)要布局在三(san)(san)北地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)和東(dong)部(bu)(bu)沿海(hai)，重點依托酒泉、哈(ha)密、蒙(meng)西(xi)、蒙(meng)東(dong)、冀北、吉林、黑龍江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)、山東(dong)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)蘇(su)等(deng)(deng)9個基地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)建設(she)；太陽能(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)主(zhu)要布局在新(xin)疆(jiang)、青海(hai)等(deng)(deng)西(xi)北地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)；其(qi)他地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)和太陽能(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)主(zhu)要以分散開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)為(wei)主(zhu)。煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)要堅持高(gao)效(xiao)、清潔，大(da)力推(tui)進高(gao)參數、大(da)容量(liang)清潔發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)技術的(de)推(tui)廣(guang)和應用，“十三(san)(san)五(wu)”重點依托鄂爾多斯(si)、錫盟(meng)、晉北、晉中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、晉東(dong)、陜北、寧東(dong)、哈(ha)密、準東(dong)等(deng)(deng)9個煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)基地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，建設(she)規(gui)模約(yue)1億(yi)(yi)千瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)；為(wei)滿(man)足中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)東(dong)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)負荷(he)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)需要，依托蒙(meng)華鐵路煤(mei)運通道等(deng)(deng)在中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)建設(she)一批煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機組，在滿(man)足等(deng)(deng)煤(mei)量(liang)（減煤(mei)量(liang)）控制目(mu)標(biao)的(de)前提下在東(dong)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)一定規(gui)模的(de)超低(di)排放煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機組。
從電(dian)(dian)(dian)力流向來看(kan)，為(wei)滿足北方煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)、西(xi)南水電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力送(song)出和京(jing)(jing)津(jin)冀魯、江浙(zhe)滬、廣(guang)東(dong)(dong)(dong)以及華(hua)中(zhong)東(dong)(dong)(dong)四(si)(si)省(sheng)等地區受電(dian)(dian)(dian)需要，到2020年(nian)，我(wo)國(guo)將(jiang)新(xin)增大氣污染防治行動(dong)計劃(hua)十二條輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通道、酒泉-湖南、準東(dong)(dong)(dong)-皖南、東(dong)(dong)(dong)北外送(song)、四(si)(si)川(chuan)-華(hua)中(zhong)東(dong)(dong)(dong)四(si)(si)省(sheng)等輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通道，“西(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)(dong)(dong)送(song)”北、中(zhong)、南三(san)個通道的(de)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)規(gui)模仍(reng)將(jiang)保持快(kuai)速(su)增長(chang)勢頭，由目(mu)前的(de)1.3億千瓦提高至(zhi)2億千瓦左右。其中(zhong)，北通道將(jiang)延(yan)續(xu)(xu)山西(xi)、內蒙古送(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)京(jing)(jing)津(jin)冀魯為(wei)主的(de)格局(ju)，中(zhong)通道形成(cheng)三(san)峽、西(xi)南水電(dian)(dian)(dian)與山西(xi)、蒙西(xi)、新(xin)疆(jiang)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)并舉送(song)華(hua)東(dong)(dong)(dong)、華(hua)中(zhong)的(de)格局(ju)，南通道延(yan)續(xu)(xu)西(xi)南水電(dian)(dian)(dian)、火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)送(song)廣(guang)東(dong)(dong)(dong)、廣(guang)西(xi)的(de)格局(ju)。
四、“十三五”電力建設投資空間
“十(shi)三(san)五”期(qi)間，我(wo)國(guo)電(dian)力(li)工(gong)業(ye)將(jiang)由規模擴張型發(fa)展向(xiang)質(zhi)量(liang)(liang)效(xiao)益型發(fa)展轉變，發(fa)展質(zhi)量(liang)(liang)明顯(xian)提(ti)升(sheng)、結構更加(jia)優化、科技(ji)含量(liang)(liang)顯(xian)著加(jia)強(qiang)，電(dian)力(li)建(jian)設(she)和(he)投(tou)資(zi)空間依然巨(ju)(ju)大。盡管(guan)“十(shi)三(san)五”期(qi)間電(dian)力(li)增速由高(gao)速轉為中(zhong)(zhong)速，但(dan)由于我(wo)國(guo)電(dian)源裝(zhuang)機(ji)基數巨(ju)(ju)大，年(nian)均增量(liang)(liang)裝(zhuang)機(ji)規模仍將(jiang)創歷史新高(gao)。平(ping)均每年(nian)的新增裝(zhuang)機(ji)約(yue)1.1億(yi)千瓦，相當(dang)于一(yi)個意大利(li)或巴西，相當(dang)于我(wo)國(guo)1988年(nian)的總裝(zhuang)機(ji)。大致匡算2015-2020年(nian)電(dian)源項(xiang)目投(tou)資(zi)需求約(yue)3.2萬億(yi)元左右，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)化石能源發(fa)電(dian)投(tou)資(zi)占約(yue)40%，非(fei)化石能源發(fa)電(dian)投(tou)資(zi)占約(yue)60%。
另(ling)一(yi)方面，國(guo)際電力(li)(li)(li)建設(she)和投(tou)資(zi)前(qian)景也十分廣闊。廣大(da)的(de)(de)新(xin)興(xing)經濟(ji)(ji)體(ti)將是(shi)未來經濟(ji)(ji)發展主(zhu)要的(de)(de)“增(zeng)長(chang)極(ji)”，我(wo)(wo)(wo)們與新(xin)興(xing)經濟(ji)(ji)體(ti)的(de)(de)互(hu)動和共(gong)同發展將創造(zao)出巨(ju)大(da)的(de)(de)空間。“一(yi)帶(dai)一(yi)路(lu)”戰略(lve)從構想步入實施階段后，我(wo)(wo)(wo)國(guo)將加(jia)快形(xing)成全(quan)方位(wei)開(kai)放的(de)(de)新(xin)格局，為(wei)促進產業(ye)轉型升級(ji)、紓解(jie)(jie)過剩產能(neng)、充(chong)分利用兩個市場(chang)和兩種資(zi)源提供難(nan)得(de)的(de)(de)機(ji)(ji)遇。“加(jia)強(qiang)能(neng)源基礎(chu)設(she)施互(hu)聯互(hu)通合作”是(shi)“一(yi)帶(dai)一(yi)路(lu)”的(de)(de)合作重點之(zhi)一(yi)。目前(qian)，全(quan)球有(you)32個新(xin)興(xing)經濟(ji)(ji)體(ti)的(de)(de)人均(jun)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)低于中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)，若使其人均(jun)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)達(da)到中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)水平(ping)，將有(you)約(yue)16.5億(yi)千(qian)瓦的(de)(de)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)建設(she)空間，按照平(ping)均(jun)單位(wei)造(zao)價(jia)約(yue)8000元/千(qian)瓦測算，投(tou)資(zi)需求約(yue)13萬(wan)億(yi)元，需求最(zui)大(da)的(de)(de)印度裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)建設(she)空間達(da)7.5億(yi)千(qian)瓦，投(tou)資(zi)需求約(yue)6萬(wan)億(yi)元。電力(li)(li)(li)建設(she)需要巨(ju)大(da)的(de)(de)資(zi)金、裝(zhuang)備(bei)、技術和人才投(tou)入，我(wo)(wo)(wo)們可以充(chong)分發揮在電力(li)(li)(li)裝(zhuang)備(bei)制造(zao)、工程建設(she)等(deng)方面的(de)(de)領先優勢，同時借(jie)助亞洲(zhou)基礎(chu)設(she)施投(tou)資(zi)銀行、絲路(lu)基金、金磚國(guo)家開(kai)發銀行等(deng)金融平(ping)臺有(you)效解(jie)(jie)決電力(li)(li)(li)項目投(tou)融資(zi)難(nan)題，為(wei)促進新(xin)興(xing)經濟(ji)(ji)體(ti)電力(li)(li)(li)基礎(chu)設(she)施的(de)(de)持續(xu)、快速發展，打造(zao)合作共(gong)贏的(de)(de)“中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)+N命運共(gong)同體(ti)”作出積極(ji)貢獻。
電(dian)(dian)力(li)工(gong)業(ye)具有資(zi)金密(mi)集、資(zi)源密(mi)集、技術密(mi)集以及(ji)項(xiang)目建(jian)設(she)周(zhou)期(qi)(qi)長的(de)(de)(de)特點(dian)，為避免電(dian)(dian)力(li)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)大起大落，電(dian)(dian)力(li)工(gong)業(ye)應適(shi)度(du)超前于國民經濟(ji)和(he)(he)社(she)會(hui)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)。“十三五”期(qi)(qi)間既是(shi)(shi)全(quan)面(mian)建(jian)成小(xiao)康社(she)會(hui)的(de)(de)(de)攻堅階(jie)段，也是(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)力(li)工(gong)業(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)關(guan)鍵時(shi)期(qi)(qi)，電(dian)(dian)力(li)建(jian)設(she)任(ren)務依然繁重。有必要超前謀劃(hua)、合理安排，把握(wo)好(hao)(hao)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)節(jie)奏，更(geng)好(hao)(hao)地(di)滿足國民經濟(ji)和(he)(he)社(she)會(hui)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)需(xu)要。
五、結語
新(xin)一(yi)(yi)輪電力(li)體制改革(ge)大幕已經拉開，發展的(de)動力(li)和活力(li)進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步(bu)迸(beng)發，改革(ge)紅利不斷釋放(fang)，我國電力(li)工業將(jiang)進(jin)入(ru)新(xin)的(de)戰略機(ji)(ji)遇(yu)期。我們要把握發展大勢，做好科學規劃，抓住(zhu)投資(zi)機(ji)(ji)遇(yu)，搞好電力(li)建設，齊心協力(li)促進(jin)電力(li)工業科學發展，為全(quan)面建成小康社會提供堅(jian)強(qiang)有力(li)的(de)支(zhi)撐。
（本文章摘(zhai)自4月20日《中國(guo)能(neng)源報》。汪建平，中國(guo)能(neng)源建設(she)集團有(you)限公(gong)司董(dong)事(shi)長、黨委書記，國(guo)家(jia)電力規劃研究(jiu)中心(xin)主任(ren)。吳(wu)云，中國(guo)能(neng)源建設(she)集團有(you)限公(gong)司總工程師，國(guo)家(jia)電力規劃研究(jiu)中心(xin)常務副主任(ren)。）