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　　近期(qi)，紡織企業繼續(xu)下(xia)(xia)調(diao)紗價(jia)，但成(cheng)交(jiao)仍(reng)(reng)未見回暖；受下(xia)(xia)游采購(gou)疲軟影響，滌(di)綸(lun)(lun)短(duan)纖價(jia)格(ge)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)。紡織銷售形勢仍(reng)(reng)然低迷，皮棉(mian)(mian)采購(gou)乏(fa)力(li)，棉(mian)(mian)花企業存棉(mian)(mian)意愿減弱，棉(mian)(mian)價(jia)繼續(xu)下(xia)(xia)滑。4月(yue)8日，32支純棉(mian)(mian)普(pu)梳紗報價(jia)36400元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)400元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)幅1.1%；滌(di)綸(lun)(lun)短(duan)纖報價(jia)13950元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)500元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)幅3.5%。內地(di)籽棉(mian)(mian)收購(gou)均(jun)(jun)價(jia)6.05元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤（折皮棉(mian)(mian)收購(gou)價(jia)27271元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)），較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)0.13元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)幅2.1%。代(dai)表內地(di)標準級皮棉(mian)(mian)銷售均(jun)(jun)價(jia)的國家棉(mian)(mian)花價(jia)格(ge)B指數29704元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)407元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)幅1.4%；新疆(jiang)標準級皮棉(mian)(mian)銷售均(jun)(jun)價(jia)30609元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)310元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)幅1%。鄭州棉(mian)(mian)花期(qi)貨5月(yue)合約結算價(jia)29060元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)5元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)幅0.02%；全國棉(mian)(mian)花交(jiao)易(yi)市(shi)場電(dian)子(zi)撮(cuo)合交(jiao)易(yi)5月(yue)合同均(jun)(jun)價(jia)28446元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，與上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)持平。

　　國(guo)(guo)家緊縮(suo)性(xing)調(diao)控政策(ce)繼續推進(jin)，下(xia)游消(xiao)費持(chi)(chi)續回(hui)升面臨挑戰。中國(guo)(guo)人民銀行(xing)宣布(bu)，自(zi)4月(yue)6日起，金(jin)融機構(gou)一年期存(cun)(cun)貸(dai)款(kuan)基(ji)準利(li)率分別上調(diao)0.25個(ge)百分點，這是央行(xing)今年以來第二次(ci)上調(diao)利(li)率。國(guo)(guo)家發改委宣布(bu)自(zi)4月(yue)7日起，汽(qi)油(you)、柴(chai)油(you)零售(shou)最高限價(jia)每噸(dun)分別提高500元和400元，物價(jia)上漲壓力增(zeng)加(jia)或將對(dui)國(guo)(guo)內消(xiao)費形成抑制。當前，紡(fang)織(zhi)(zhi)行(xing)業產(chan)銷(xiao)形勢(shi)仍較(jiao)低迷，下(xia)游企(qi)(qi)業紗、布(bu)采購(gou)謹慎，紡(fang)織(zhi)(zhi)企(qi)(qi)業訂(ding)單(dan)疲軟，企(qi)(qi)業產(chan)成品庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)增(zeng)加(jia)，價(jia)格(ge)持(chi)(chi)續下(xia)滑，江浙地區部(bu)分紗廠已出現停產(chan)或限產(chan)現象，在下(xia)游銷(xiao)售(shou)啟(qi)動之前，預計(ji)棉(mian)花需求難以迅速釋放，棉(mian)花企(qi)(qi)業銷(xiao)售(shou)壓力較(jiao)大(da)，棉(mian)價(jia)將保持(chi)(chi)弱勢(shi)運行(xing)可能性(xing)較(jiao)大(da)，但受國(guo)(guo)際市場和資(zi)金(jin)炒(chao)作因(yin)素的影響，也不排(pai)除大(da)幅震蕩的可能。

　　隨著美元(yuan)指數(shu)進(jin)(jin)一步(bu)下行，黃金和石油(you)等大宗(zong)商品價(jia)(jia)格大幅飆(biao)升(sheng)，棉花(hua)(hua)期貨強勢(shi)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)。4月8日(ri)，紐約(yue)(yue)棉花(hua)(hua)期貨5月合約(yue)(yue)結算價(jia)(jia)202.97美分(fen)/磅(bang)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)7.42美分(fen)/磅(bang)，漲(zhang)(zhang)幅3.8%。代表(biao)進(jin)(jin)口(kou)棉中國主港到岸均價(jia)(jia)的國際(ji)棉花(hua)(hua)指數(shu)（M）按1%關稅計算，折(zhe)人(ren)民(min)幣進(jin)(jin)口(kou)成本38825元(yuan)/噸，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)1139元(yuan)/噸，漲(zhang)(zhang)幅3.0%；按滑準(zhun)稅計算，折(zhe)人(ren)民(min)幣進(jin)(jin)口(kou)成本39014元(yuan)/噸，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)1128元(yuan)/噸，漲(zhang)(zhang)幅3.0%。

　　國(guo)際棉(mian)(mian)市(shi)行(xing)情(qing)保持堅(jian)挺。雖然寬松貨(huo)幣(bi)政策(ce)面臨轉向(xiang)，歐(ou)(ou)洲央行(xing)加(jia)息等因素對市(shi)場造成(cheng)一(yi)定壓力，但綜合各(ge)方情(qing)況來看，短期內國(guo)際棉(mian)(mian)花市(shi)場行(xing)情(qing)仍(reng)有(you)望維持堅(jian)挺。首先，歐(ou)(ou)央行(xing)加(jia)息促使資金看好歐(ou)(ou)元，美元指數(shu)持續下滑，日本地(di)(di)(di)震及中東局勢恐慌情(qing)緒緩解，大宗商品價格再度(du)走(zou)強，棉(mian)(mian)花價格有(you)望保持強勢。其次，當(dang)前美棉(mian)(mian)銷售(shou)仍(reng)十分活躍(yue)。美國(guo)農業(ye)部公布的2011年(nian)3月(yue)25-31日的美國(guo)棉(mian)(mian)花出口報告顯示遠期美棉(mian)(mian)需求旺盛，當(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)，2011/12年(nian)度(du)美國(guo)陸地(di)(di)(di)棉(mian)(mian)出口凈簽約量(liang)(liang)為(wei)6.08萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)。美國(guo)陸地(di)(di)(di)棉(mian)(mian)出口裝運量(liang)(liang)為(wei)11.8萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)前周(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)長15%，較(jiao)前四周(zhou)(zhou)平(ping)均(jun)水平(ping)增(zeng)長27%，創下本年(nian)度(du)以(yi)來最高紀錄(lu)。另外，國(guo)際棉(mian)(mian)花咨詢委員會（ICAC）發布的4月(yue)份全球(qiu)產需預測，在3月(yue)基礎上(shang)將全球(qiu)棉(mian)(mian)花產量(liang)(liang)調減44.7萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)至(zhi)(zhi)2446.1萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，而將消費(fei)量(liang)(liang)調增(zeng)12.8萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)至(zhi)(zhi)2483.1萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，期末庫存(cun)消費(fei)比降至(zhi)(zhi)33%，較(jiao)上(shang)月(yue)下調4個百分點。