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　　近(jin)期(qi)(qi)，棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)紗(sha)銷售(shou)(shou)(shou)行(xing)情(qing)弱勢未(wei)改，紡織企(qi)(qi)業(ye)庫存壓力較(jiao)大，降(jiang)(jiang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)促銷企(qi)(qi)業(ye)增(zeng)多，棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)紗(sha)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)進一步擴大；滌棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)紗(sha)銷售(shou)(shou)(shou)不濟拖累滌短(duan)(duan)行(xing)情(qing)。紡織企(qi)(qi)業(ye)皮(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)采購積極性下降(jiang)(jiang)，棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花企(qi)(qi)業(ye)對后(hou)市(shi)(shi)的(de)看(kan)法出現分歧(qi)，但(dan)主流企(qi)(qi)業(ye)存棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)成本較(jiao)高且看(kan)好后(hou)市(shi)(shi)，不愿大幅(fu)降(jiang)(jiang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)銷售(shou)(shou)(shou)，市(shi)(shi)場陷入(ru)僵持，現貨價(jia)(jia)(jia)格穩中略(lve)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)。3月(yue)25日，32支純棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)普梳紗(sha)報價(jia)(jia)(jia)37400元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)1150元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)3.0%；滌綸短(duan)(duan)纖報價(jia)(jia)(jia)14650元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)150元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)1.0%。內地籽棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)收(shou)購均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)6.33元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤（折皮(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)收(shou)購價(jia)(jia)(jia)28452元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)），較(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)0.05元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)0.8%。代表內地標準(zhun)級皮(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)銷售(shou)(shou)(shou)均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)的(de)國家棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花價(jia)(jia)(jia)格B指數30643元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)38元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)0.1%；新疆標準(zhun)級皮(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)銷售(shou)(shou)(shou)均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)31062元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)29元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)0.1%。鄭州(zhou)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花期(qi)(qi)貨5月(yue)合(he)約結(jie)算(suan)價(jia)(jia)(jia)30430元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)145元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)0.5%；全國棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花交易市(shi)(shi)場電子(zi)撮(cuo)合(he)交易5月(yue)合(he)同(tong)均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)30347元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)上漲(zhang)33元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，漲(zhang)幅(fu)0.1%。

　　國(guo)內棉(mian)價(jia)趨于平穩(wen)使棉(mian)花企(qi)(qi)業恐慌(huang)心態有(you)所(suo)改觀，高等級棉(mian)價(jia)格(ge)在(zai)資源稀少(shao)的(de)(de)支撐(cheng)下逐漸企(qi)(qi)穩(wen)，但緊縮政策和紡織運行(xing)疲弱仍(reng)將對近期(qi)棉(mian)價(jia)形成制約(yue)。主要原因：一是3月25日起人民幣存款(kuan)準備金率上(shang)調0.5個百分點，央(yang)行(xing)副行(xing)長(chang)、國(guo)家外管局(ju)局(ju)長(chang)易(yi)綱表示，央(yang)行(xing)今(jin)年最主要的(de)(de)工作就是對抗通脹，維持(chi)物價(jia)穩(wen)定，所(suo)有(you)可能(neng)的(de)(de)政策工具，包括利(li)率、匯率、存款(kuan)準備金率以及(ji)公開市場操(cao)作等手段都在(zai)考慮之列。二(er)是目前紡織企(qi)(qi)業的(de)(de)棉(mian)紗(sha)庫存壓力較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)，行(xing)情整體(ti)弱勢(shi)(shi)未改，資金實力相對較(jiao)(jiao)弱的(de)(de)中小型(xing)紡企(qi)(qi)降價(jia)促銷的(de)(de)不(bu)在(zai)少(shao)數，短期(qi)皮(pi)棉(mian)需求難以明顯釋放，現貨市場或將維持(chi)弱勢(shi)(shi)僵(jiang)持(chi)局(ju)面。綜上(shang)，預計近期(qi)棉(mian)價(jia)橫向整理的(de)(de)可能(neng)性較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)。

　　日本核泄露事件稍有(you)緩和，但利比(bi)亞緊張局勢繼(ji)續升(sheng)級，大宗商品(pin)市場波(bo)動較(jiao)大，紐約(yue)棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)期(qi)貨劇烈振蕩，交易重(zhong)心略有(you)上(shang)(shang)移，國際現貨價(jia)格在(zai)美(mei)(mei)(mei)棉(mian)(mian)銷售好轉的(de)助推下大幅(fu)(fu)上(shang)(shang)漲。3月25日，紐約(yue)棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)期(qi)貨5月合約(yue)結算(suan)(suan)價(jia)204.49美(mei)(mei)(mei)分/磅(bang)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)上(shang)(shang)漲5.37美(mei)(mei)(mei)分/磅(bang)，漲幅(fu)(fu)2.7%。代表進口(kou)棉(mian)(mian)中(zhong)國主港到岸均價(jia)的(de)國際棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)指(zhi)數（M）按(an)1%關稅(shui)計算(suan)(suan)，折(zhe)人民幣進口(kou)成本39868元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)上(shang)(shang)漲2435元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，漲幅(fu)(fu)6.5%；按(an)滑準稅(shui)計算(suan)(suan)，折(zhe)人民幣進口(kou)成本40047元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)上(shang)(shang)漲2411元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，漲幅(fu)(fu)6.4%。

　　從基本(ben)面和外圍環境分析，近期國際市場(chang)多空交織，行情難改振(zhen)(zhen)蕩(dang)走勢(shi)。基本(ben)面，據(ju)(ju)美(mei)國農業部(bu)（USDA）公(gong)布的數(shu)據(ju)(ju)，3月(yue)11-17日的美(mei)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)出口簽約量(liang)(liang)和裝運(yun)量(liang)(liang)大幅上(shang)升，說明市場(chang)需求仍然旺盛。不(bu)過(guo)，南(nan)半(ban)球棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花豐產(chan)在(zai)望，中期供給充裕，不(bu)利棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)價繼續走高。據(ju)(ju)巴西(xi)農業部(bu)的最新預測，本(ben)年度巴西(xi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花實(shi)播(bo)面積1950萬(wan)畝，單(dan)產(chan)有(you)望達到100公(gong)斤/畝，總產(chan)量(liang)(liang)195萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增幅超過(guo)60%；澳大利亞(ya)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)區天氣轉晴，收(shou)獲即(ji)將完成，預計(ji)本(ben)年度澳棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)將創下歷(li)史(shi)最高紀錄(lu)，有(you)關方面預測其產(chan)量(liang)(liang)為98萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增幅高達154%。目前，利比(bi)(bi)亞(ya)政局動蕩(dang)，大宗商品走勢(shi)不(bu)確(que)定性(xing)較大，國際棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)價將繼續維持振(zhen)(zhen)蕩(dang)格局的可能性(xing)較大。